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Policy choices and the political business cycle

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The political business cycle - the theory that during the run up to an election, the government has an incentive to produce a giveaway budget to woo prospective voters – is a perpetual feature of elections. Recent research on the US economy has shown election outcomes are strongly correlated with only the last two quarters of economic output. In other words, voters have very short memories. Struggling politicians therefore have a strong incentive to produce giveaway budgets near election years, regardless of whether it is a good idea economically or not.

Ireland’s policy makers are in a bind. With an election looming, our government cannot splurge on pork barrel projects to keep interest groups and the public at large happy, because any extra spending will come from borrowing, and the bond markets will not like that, as it will signal that the government is not serious about fiscal reform. Anything perceived as a splurge will cause the cost of our borrowing to increase. The government cannot cut too far either - that way political suicide lies. So we have an intriguing problem: the government has committed to a programme of fiscal rectitude by 2014 - expenditure cuts and tax increases - but politically it can’t credibly carry out that programme of fiscal rectitude without guaranteeing electoral immolation. What to do?

Agent Orange still a silent killer

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Thousands of people still struggle with the effects of dangerous levels of dioxin released by the US military in the Vietnam War. By Justin Frewen.

In 1975, after a 30 years struggle against a range of foreign forces, the victorious National Liberation Front of Vietnam forces entered Saigon, the capital of the South. For the first time since its occupation by France in the late 19th century, Việt Nam was independent and no longer subject to the dictates of external powers.

However, while the lengthy and costly conflicts which had resulted in the loss of 3 million Vietnamese lives were over, they left in their wake a legacy of debilitating obstacles in the way of the country’s future economic development.

The social determinants of mental health

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Progressive change in mental health can be made by improving the social and economic status of the poorest. By Justin Frewen and Dr. Anna Datta.

There is a growing awareness among health professionals and policy makers of the role social and economic factors play in determining good mental health.

The WHO Regional Committee for Europe noted, “Widening disparities in society or economic changes in individuals’ life courses seem to be of particular importance here. Whether defined by income, socioeconomic status, living conditions or educational level, poverty is an important determinant of mental disability and is associated with lower life expectancy and increased prevalence of alcohol and drug abuse, depression, suicide, antisocial behaviour and violence”.

Playing a dangerous game in Chad

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UN withdrawal from Chad will leave vulnerable people with no protection and waste efforts already made to stabilise the region. By Tom Rowe.

The 400 Irish troops in eastern Chad protect thousands of Chadians and Sudanese refugees, as well as numerous humanitarian aid agencies, from danger.

Threats include opportunistic banditry from armed men, stealing everything from animals to walkie-talkies; deliberate attack from Sudanese-backed militia, with the aim of terrorising the population into staying away from their original villages and land; and abuses by the Chadian army, which has been shown to take children to use as servants for soldiers. The children lose contact with their families who flee villages due to fighting, and the military denies knowledge of their whereabouts.

Cautious hope in Guinea

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Elections are promised in Guinea, causing excitement among a people tired of military rule and a living standard of less than a dollar a day. But the country is not ready for elections and democratic rule. By Tom Rowe.

Guineans know what it means to wait. They spend a lot of their time sitting in the dark, waiting for the electricity to come back. It usually does, sometimes after five minutes, sometimes a few hours. In the suburbs they are lucky if they have power every second day. 

The 10 million inhabitants of this West African country are also waiting for democracy. They have been waiting for over 50 years. Since declaring independence from France in 1958, Guinea has suffered autocratic rule from three leaders, the last of whom was deposed in a botched attempted assassination in December after only a year in power. To much surprise, his second-in-command has handed over power from the military to the civilians and promised elections in six months, with the date set for June 27. The €20m needed to run the elections has been collected.

New mental health policies could benefit wider economy

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Mental health supporters need to engage with economic arguments to further their influence. By Justin Frewen and Dr. Anna Datta.

When discussing mental health, we tend to focus on issues such as the distress and suffering of mental health service users as well as the most appropriate manner in which we might respond to their needs. The human rights of mental health service users are also a significant issue and have been assuming a more important role in this debate thanks to the efforts of bodies such as Amnesty International.

These facts should in themselves provide sufficient justification to ensure the deployment of the required resources to cater for the needs of every mental health service user in Ireland.

Sudanese elections crucial in possible partition

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The Sudanese elections taking place now could lead to partition of the country between north and south. Oil will be a key factor in the negotiations if hostility is to be avoided. By Justin Frewen.

Dialogue on Sudan in recent years has tended to focus on Darfur. While understandable given the violence that has happened there since 2003, this focus overshadows important developments in the south of the country.

Regenerating the Regeneration Project

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A new, scaled-down regeneration project for Limerick is to be sent to cabinet next week.

The revised plan will cost €924m, approximately 57% of the cost of the original. This revision of cost is a recognition that we live in straightened times, but also that the cost of construction has gone down quite a lot. Overall I’m not too surprised or upset by this downward revision. Most of the work of the regeneration project’s initial phases will be completed using these funds.

There is something to get upset about though. The revised plan will be delivered over a much longer period of time, meaning the present benefits to the residents of the regeneration areas are much less than envisaged. Given that the Fitzgerald report is explicitly designed to alleviate the conditions currently being experienced by residents today, the revised plan is not and should not be accepted as it stands.

Quinn and the spin of ‘systemic importance’

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Rules. They are there for a reason. When dealing with financial products like insurance, the financial regulator sets the rules. The rules are there for a very good reason: the consequences for the public for a large insurer getting into financial difficulty are enormous.

Ireland has had a very poor regulatory environment up until now. I have no doubt the blame for much of the excesses can be traced to the financial regulator and its inactions over the boom years. Now we have a new regulator, interested in imposing tougher standards on those companies whose businesses fall under its remit.

Time for advocates to push mental health agenda

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Mental Health services as yet inadequateAdvocates of Mental Health could pressurise government into delivering on its 2006 policy document 'A Vision for Change'. By Justin Frewen and Anna Datta.

According to the 2005 WHO report, The Economics of Mental Health in Europe, the cost to society of mental illness is estimated at approximately 3-4% of the GNP of EU member states. Ireland is no exception. In 2006, alone, the cost of mental health problems was estimated at €3 billion with €2 billion lost in economic output and a further €1 billion disbursed on health and social care together with other forms of direct care.

Senegal's separatist conflict smoulders on

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Mines West Africa’s longest running separatist conflict has already claimed as many lives as the Troubles. In a new departure, rebels have brought the conflict to Ziguinchor, the capital of Casamance state. By Tom Rowe.

A boom rang through the trees as Moise pointed out the mangoes and cashew fruits growing everywhere in the village. I started and stopped in my tracks, causing him to laugh and ask if I was afraid. I was. The noise was ferocious and sounded very close, in the trees ahead. I had no interest in getting caught in the crossfire of the Casamance conflict. The sound was that of the Senegalese army firing their heavy artillery at the rebels who have been fighting for independence for 20 years. Moise told me not to worry, it was not close. The firing continued sporadically for a few minutes, then died down. 

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